Accurately predicting the survival of cancer patients is crucial for personalized treatment. However, existing studies focus solely on the relationships between samples with known survival risks, without fully leveraging the value of censored samples. Furthermore, these studies may suffer performance degradation in modality-missing scenarios and even struggle during the inference process. In this study, we propose a bipartite patient-modality graph learning with event-conditional modelling of censoring for cancer survival prediction (CenSurv). Specifically, we first use graph structure to model multimodal data and obtain representation. Then, to alleviate performance degradation in modality-missing scenarios, we design a bipartite graph to simulate the patient-modality relationship in various modality-missing scenarios and leverage a complete-incomplete alignment strategy to explore modality-agnostic features. Finally, we design a plug-and-play event-conditional modeling of censoring (ECMC) that selects reliable censored data using dynamic momentum accumulation confidences, assigns more accurate survival times to these censored data, and incorporates them as uncensored data into training. Comprehensive evaluations on 5 publicly cancer datasets showcase the superiority of CenSurv over the best state-of-the-art by 3.1% in terms of the mean C-index, while also exhibiting excellent robustness under various modality-missing scenarios. In addition, using the plug-and-play ECMC module, the mean C-index of 8 baselines increased by 1.3% across 5 datasets. Code of CenSurv is available at https://github.com/yuehailin/CenSurv.

Survival prediction is a significant challenge in cancer management. Tumor micro-environment is a highly sophisticated ecosystem consisting of cancer cells, immune cells, endothelial cells, fibroblasts, nerves and extracellular matrix. However, current methods often neglect the fact that the contribution to prognosis differs with tissue types. In this paper, we propose ProtoSurv, a novel heterogeneous graph model for WSI survival prediction. The learning process of ProtoSurv is not only driven by data but also incorporates pathological domain knowledge, including the awareness of tissue heterogeneity, the emphasis on prior knowledge of prognostic-related tissues, and the depiction of spatial interaction across multiple tissues.

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been paid to obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates associated with each prediction. The currently popular models are opaque and untrustworthy in that they often express high confidence even on those test cases that are not similar to the training samples, and even when their predictions are wrong. We propose a Bayesian framework for survival models that not only gives more accurate survival predictions but also quantifies the survival uncertainty better. Our approach is a novel combination of variational inference for uncertainty estimation, neural multi-task logistic regression for estimating nonlinear and time-varying risk models, and an additional sparsity-inducing prior to work with high dimensional data.